Are Solar Panel Prices Falling? Buy Now or Wait?
Yes — but only barely now. The big drops already happened. Here’s the honest maths on why waiting for a cheaper system usually costs you more than it saves.
The short answer
Solar panel prices are still falling — but only gently, and the big drops are behind us. Panels have fallen ~90% since 2010, but in 2026 they’re barely moving (mainstream panels dropped just 3.6% between April and July), and installed prices have shifted within ±5% a year since 2020. The reason: panels are now only 40–50% of an installed system’s cost — the rest is labour, scaffolding, inverter and grid work, which don’t fall. Solar is now a mature commodity industry with no big cuts left to come.
So should you wait? For most people, no — and the maths is clear. A 4kW system generates ~£700–£1,100 a year in savings and export income, so every year you wait, you lose roughly that much in free electricity — far more than the £150–£250 a small future price drop might save you. And there’s a deadline: 0% VAT ends 31 March 2027, after which prices effectively rise ~£300–£750. Waiting risks a VAT increase bigger than any price fall you’re hoping for. The honest verdict, the evidence, and the genuine reasons to wait, below.
What this guide covers
“Should I wait for solar to get cheaper?” is one of the most sensible questions a would-be buyer can ask — nobody wants to buy just before a price crash. The honest answer, backed by the actual 2026 price data, is reassuring: you haven’t missed a crash, and you’re not about to miss one either, because the big fall already happened. Here’s the real maths, without the sales pressure.
Are solar panel prices actually still falling?
Technically yes — but the movement now is so small it barely matters to your decision. The long-term fall has been genuinely dramatic: solar panels have dropped around 90% in cost since 2010 (and ~97% since 2005), which is exactly why a system that cost £40,000 two decades ago now costs £6,000–£8,000. But that collapse is history, and you’ve already reaped its benefit in today’s low prices. In 2026, the numbers are almost flat: mainstream panel prices fell just 3.6% between April and July 2026, and installed system prices have moved within about ±5% a year since 2020. As one installer put it bluntly, the big price drops are behind us — solar is now a mature commodity industry with no 50% cost reductions left to come. So if you’re picturing another decade-style plunge just around the corner, it isn’t coming. The dramatic savings are already in the price you’d pay today.
Why installed prices barely move any more
The panels are cheap — but they’re only half of what you pay
Here’s the point that explains everything, and that catches most people out. When you hear “solar panel prices have fallen 90%,” it’s natural to assume installed system prices have fallen just as far. They haven’t — because the panels are now only about 40–50% of an installed system’s cost. The other 50–60% is labour, scaffolding, the inverter, mounting hardware, electrical work, grid-connection paperwork and MCS certification — and those costs are tied to wages, materials and skilled time, so they’ve stayed broadly flat or risen with inflation. As panel prices tumbled, they came to represent a smaller and smaller slice of the total, so each further fall moved the overall price less and less. It’s like a product whose raw material got much cheaper while the manufacturing and fitting didn’t: the finished price drops, but nowhere near as fast. This is why installed prices fell only around 16–17% over the last two years even as panels kept getting cheaper — and why big future drops in what you actually pay are unlikely. The cheap-panel story is real, but it’s already baked into today’s installed prices. There’s no hidden discount coming if you just hold on.
The real cost of waiting
This is the argument that settles the whole question, and it’s pure arithmetic. A solar system starts generating value the day it’s switched on — so every month you delay is a month of free electricity you simply don’t produce. A typical 4kW system generates around £700–£1,100 a year in electricity savings and export income (more if you use most of your generation during the day). Now weigh that against what waiting might save you: with prices moving only a few percent a year, holding off for a whole year might shave £150–£250 off the purchase price — if prices fall at all. So the trade is stark: wait a year to maybe save £200, and lose the best part of £900 in electricity you could have generated in that time. In almost every case, that’s a losing bet. The generation you forgo while waiting is worth far more than any realistic future price cut — which is precisely why “waiting for it to get cheaper” so often ends up being the more expensive choice. The clock on a solar system runs in your favour the moment it’s installed, and against you every month it isn’t.
The 0% VAT deadline (a real reason to act)
There’s one more factor that actively tilts the decision toward buying now rather than later: the 0% VAT rate on solar panels and batteries ends on 31 March 2027, after which it’s scheduled to revert to 5%. This is a genuine, time-limited saving that directly affects your bill. On a typical system costing £6,000–£15,000, losing the 0% rate and paying 5% instead would add roughly £300–£750 — a real increase that would wipe out, and probably exceed, any small saving from waiting for panel prices to drift down. In other words, the two forces point in opposite directions: waiting risks a VAT-driven price rise that’s bigger than the price fall you’re hoping for. To be fair, 5% is still a reduced rate (standard VAT is 20%), so solar won’t become unaffordable overnight in April 2027 — but it will cost noticeably more than today. Combined with the year-plus of lost generation, the 0% VAT window makes the case for acting sooner rather than later genuinely compelling for anyone whose circumstances are ready.
When waiting does make sense
This guide isn’t here to rush you — and honesty means naming the real reasons waiting can be right, none of which is “for a big price drop.” Efficiency keeps improving: 2026 panels are around 25% more efficient per square metre than 2018 ones, so if you have very limited roof space, a newer panel might squeeze out more power — though you’d be trading years of lost generation for a marginal gain, which rarely pays. Your circumstances might not be ready: if your roof needs repair first, your finances are stretched, you’re about to move house, or you simply haven’t had time to get proper quotes and understand the decision, then rushing in to beat a deadline would be a mistake. Solar is a long-term investment and should be made when you’re ready and confident, not under pressure. And a small honest caveat on prices themselves: the removal of China’s export rebate in April 2026 could nudge some prices up rather than down, so the gentle downward trend isn’t even guaranteed. The bottom line on waiting: don’t wait for prices to fall (they won’t, meaningfully), but do wait if your roof, finances or plans genuinely aren’t ready.
The honest verdict
Don’t wait for the big drop — it already happened
The bottom line: Solar panel prices are still falling, but only gently — the ~90% collapse since 2010 is done, prices now move within ±5% a year, and panels are only half of what you pay (labour and the rest don’t fall). Waiting a year to save maybe £200 means losing ~£900 of free electricity you’d have generated — a bad trade — and 0% VAT ending in March 2027 risks a £300–£750 rise that dwarfs any price drop. So if the economics make sense at today’s prices and your roof and finances are ready, buy now. Only wait if you’re not ready — never for a “big drop” that isn’t coming.
Get my free quotes →So — buy now, or wait?
The reassuring truth is that this is a much less nerve-wracking decision than it feels. You haven’t missed the boat, and you’re not about to — because the dramatic price fall everyone’s heard about already happened, and you’d benefit from it at today’s prices. From here, prices creep rather than plunge, and the small drops still to come are comfortably outweighed by two things pulling the other way: the hundreds of pounds of free electricity you generate every year you’re not waiting, and the 0% VAT deadline in March 2027. Put simply, the maths of waiting doesn’t add up for most people.
That said, this is your call to make without pressure. Buy now if the economics work at today’s prices and your roof and finances are ready; wait only if your own circumstances genuinely aren’t — not in hope of a price crash that isn’t coming. The way to know where you stand is to see the actual numbers for your home: a couple of free, no-obligation quotes from MCS-certified installers will show you today’s real prices, your expected generation and savings, and your payback — so you can make the buy-now-or-wait decision on facts rather than a hunch about where prices might drift.
Frequently asked questions
Are solar panel prices still falling in 2026?
Only gently — the big drops are over. Panels fell ~90% since 2010, but in 2026 they moved just 3.6% (April–July), and installed prices shift within ±5% a year. Solar is a mature commodity industry now, with no big cuts left. The dramatic fall is already in today’s prices.
Should I wait for prices to drop before buying?
For most people, no. A 4kW system generates ~£700–£1,100/year, so waiting a year to save maybe £150–£250 on a small price drop means losing ~£900 of free electricity — a bad trade. Plus 0% VAT ends March 2027. If your roof and finances are ready, buying now wins.
Why hasn’t the installed price fallen more?
Because panels are only 40–50% of the cost — the rest is labour, scaffolding, inverter and grid work, which don’t fall like panels do. So installed prices dropped only ~16–17% over two years even as panels kept sliding. The cheap-panel savings are already in today’s prices.
Is there any good reason to wait?
Not for a price drop. But wait if your circumstances aren’t ready — roof needs repair, finances stretched, moving house, or you haven’t got proper quotes yet. Efficiency also improves ~25% per decade, but you’d lose years of generation waiting for a marginal gain. Buy when you’re ready, not under pressure.
When does 0% VAT on solar end?
31 March 2027, then it reverts to 5% — adding ~£300–£750 to a typical system. That likely exceeds any small saving from waiting for prices to drift down, so the VAT deadline tilts the decision toward buying sooner. (5% is still reduced — standard VAT is 20%.)
How much does solar cost right now?
A 4kW system is ~£5,000–£8,000 installed in 2026 (median ~£1,780/kW, a real-terms record low), with a battery adding £3,500–£6,500. Payback is typically 7–13 years. See our 4kW system guide for the full breakdown.
Important
Going Solar UK is an introduction service, not an installer or financial adviser. This guide is general 2026 information: solar prices, VAT rules, electricity rates, export tariffs and market trends change – the figures here are typical estimates and current at the time of writing (September 2026), not guarantees or financial advice. Price forecasts are inherently uncertain. Always obtain current, itemised quotes for your own property and confirm the prevailing VAT rate and incentives via gov.uk before making a decision.
We may receive a commission when we introduce you to an installer, at no cost to you. Any contract for work is directly between you and the installer.